Dallas Stars’ Wyatt Johnston Showing Elite Potential

What Johnston did for the Stars in his age-20 campaign is nothing short of brilliant, being an essential piece in his team’s incredible regular season. The eye test and stats test alike prove this to be the case. What exactly makes the youngster so special?

Johnston’s Offensive Upside Is Bright

Just looking at Johnston’s offense alone, it becomes clear that he is far exceeding what he should be doing given his age. With 32 goals and 33 assists for 65 points in 82 games this season, he is already a valuable top-six producer. Since the NHL lockout ended in 2005-06, that production is among some of the best age-20 scorers.

Among the 251 forwards with 20 or more games played in that 19-season time frame, Johnston is tied for ninth in goals, tied for 28th in assists, and tied for 17th in total points. Almost all of the players ahead of him or around him turned into top-end players in the NHL, putting the rarity of his accomplishments into context.

Looking at pure point totals is grand and all, but it doesn’t tell the full story. In reality, Johnston has lived up to those totals and provided far more. He passes the eye test with flying colors.

The Stars are a great puck-possession team that is elite at generating chances, and Johnston is no exception. With a Corsi for (CF%) of 54.7 percent at even strength, he ranked in the 86th percentile among the 499 forwards with 100 or more minutes of ice time in 2023-24 for the stat. When Johnston was on the ice, the Stars out shot their opponent quite significantly.

Johnston, whose most common linemates were aging veterans Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov, saw himself become arguably the best player on said line. He is one of the big reasons why the Stars are such a good team in the first place; Dallas never takes their foot off of the gas. Once their relentless first line of Robertson, Hintz, and Pavelski is over the bench, the youngster and his teammates get to work on the forecheck. A 113-point team isn’t made from just one trio of players.

For Johnston, though, it’s not just in-zone scoring that he excels with. He is a lethal player on the rush as well. In fact, that might be his biggest strength. When he gets going in the neutral zone, very few can stop him. He is dynamic when he gets his wheels going.

Johnston has all the offensive instincts anyone would want from a future first-line player. He wins a lot of puck battles, which creates tired opponents and better scoring opportunities. This isn’t him benefitting from being on an elite team, either; he is the reason for success, not mooching off of it.

Johnston’s Defensive Numbers Are Solid, Too

When a young player is as dominant offensively as Johnston is, it’s not rare for his defensive metrics to be poor. Well, his are actually pretty solid. Among the same group of 499 forwards mentioned before, he ranked in the 77th percentile of expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), the 84th percentile for scoring chances against per 60 (SCA/60), and in the 80th percentile for high-danger chances against per 60 (HDCA/60).

The difference between Johnston and those above him? He is a high-event player, meaning his results are more impressive rather than a given like those who play low-event minutes in a bottom-six role. The higher level of competition hasn’t really phased him.

Johnston’s numbers at both ends of the ice might be slightly exaggerated due to the Stars being an elite team from top to bottom, but if they are, it’s not by much. He is no Selke Trophy candidate, but he doesn’t spend all that much time in the defensive zone. His offense might be more notable, but he can play the 200-foot length of the ice if necessary.

What Does This Mean for the Stars?

With arguably the best starting lineup in the NHL coupled with great depth and a 20-year-old center who is showing first-line upside, it means a Stanley Cup is very possible for the Stars at some point. That might seem ambitious, but they already have everything in place to make a run at it for years to come.

Following up an appearance in the Western Conference Final with the second-best record in the league proves that Dallas is no fluke. Their key contributors are still very young and a few of them (Hintz, Heiskanen) are locked up to friendly deals for the long-term future, while young players like Johnston and 21-year-old Logan Stankoven are just getting started with their careers.

Entering the playoffs this season as one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup despite second-line players like Johnston and Stankoven likely not in their prime yet, the Stars have the team in place that every rebuilder dreams of. All of their core players are in their mid-20s at the oldest, and they have a solid prospect pool. It’s pretty hard to be the favorites forever without bringing home some hardware, evidenced by the Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2010s and 2020s.

Even if someone like Hintz starts to age a bit, that’s when Johnston can swoop in and take on a top-line centerman role. With a potential 1C in their laps, the Stars should be Cup contenders for a long time.

The 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs will be a welcomed challenge for Johnston. Facing the Vegas Golden Knights, who eliminated them last season, in the first round, the Stars will need every contribution possible to win that series this time around. The youngster will be called upon to make that happen.